NASCAR Picks: NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire Best Bets, Odds to Consider at DraftKings Sportsbook

Most fans will remember the embarrassing opening laps of last season’s New Hampshire race. NASCAR was desperate to get the race started with the Olympics and the long break starting the next day. The race started on a wet track. The leaders pleaded with NASCAR to stop the race, but were ignored and the favorites crushed.

After the dust settled and the rain passed, the race started in earnest, and it was a great race. NASCAR opted not to apply PJ1 due to the modified event the night before. The result was a multi-groove track that left racing up to the drivers. The long-running cars battled the sprinters all afternoon. It was a great race, and even in the lackluster Next Gen car, New Hampshire should once again deliver surprisingly good racing.

As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. These are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter 301 at New Hampshire, which begins on Sunday, July 17 at 3 pm ET.


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Race Winner: Ambetter 301

Ryan Blaney +600

There have been four races on flat tracks under a mile in length this season: Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville and Gateway. Ryan Blaney has a Real Rating (a statistic that comprehensively summarizes a driver’s career) greater than 0.90 in each race. His average Actual Rating for those four races is 0.96. The next closest driver is his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano at 0.86. Blaney has yet to officially win this season, but he did win the $1 million All-Star race at Texas. That’s a 1.5-mile intermediate track, but the proper Texas setup relies on a perfect fit for the flat lean in Turns 1 and 2.

Head to Head — William Byron vs Alex Bowman

William Byron -130

Nothing has changed. Alex Bowman is still Hendrick’s weak link in 2022. Chase Elliott has become the Alpha of late, but Byron and Kyle Larson are not far behind fighting for second place. On the short, flat tracks, Byron’s average true index is 0.79. That’s good enough to tie his teammate Chase Elliott for third-best in the Cup Series. Alex Bowman is way down the list at 15th.


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Head to Head — Tyler Reddick vs. kevin harvick

kevin harvick-115

The 2021 season was forgettable for Harvick. So far, the 2022 season has been more of the same. However, there has been one exception. Harvick’s actual rating on the short and flat tracks ranks sixth. That average is weighed down by a shipwreck at Gateway (0.57 Real Rating). Last season, the SHR cars were all fast at New Hampshire. Aric Almirola won the race, with Harvick earning the third-highest rating per driver.

Head to Head — Aric Almirola vs Austin Cindric

Aric Almirola -135

It is never comfortable to choose drivers whose names easily sound like the word accident. But in this case, Ar-wreck and Cind-wreck are in the same boat. Almirola won this race last season and his best races this season have been on short, flat tracks. In the four races comparable to New Hampshire, Almirola has the ninth-best average Actual Rating. Cindric is ranked 16th on the short and flat tracks. Also, this will be Cindric’s first Cup Series race at New Hampshire, and he was never particularly good in the Xfinity Series at New Hampshire, despite facing soft fields while running a great team and having a superstar crew chief. .

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All betting odds provided by Draft Kings sports betting and all odds are subject to change.


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